Is it time to panic?

The Sens have stumbled out to an inauspicious 1-4-1 start. Chicken Little has arrived in the nation's capital and it's not even Halloween. Is there still time to turn things around? With 76 games left on the schedule of course there is....but time is shorter than what you might think.

www.shrpsports.com is a website that tracks the standings of various leagues by date. Going back five seasons(every year post lockout) it's amazing to see how little movement there is in the top eight on November 1st compared to the final standings.

05-06
-TOR & FLA had playoff spots on Nov.1. PHI & MTL had them at the end. (2)

06-07
-TOR, MTL & CAR had spots on Nov.1. OTT, TB & NYI had them at the end (3)

07-08
-TOR, NYI & CAR had spots on Nov.1. WSH, NJ & NYR had them at the end (3)

08-09
-TOR & BUF had spots on Nov.1. WSH & PHI had them at the end (2)

09-10
-NYR had a spot on Nov.1. BOS had it at the end. (1)

Thanks to three point games, in the last five seasons combined only eleven Eastern Conference teams have made the playoffs after not being in the top eight by November 1st. (on a side note, be sure to point out to your Leaf fan buddy that Toronto gave up an early season spot 4 of those 11 times :) In a more recent trend it's only happened three times in the last two seasons.

When you compare the final standings to December 1st, the five year number falls to eight, and in the last 2 years it's happened only twice. Both of those times coming last year.

So, is it time to panic Sens fans? Not really, but you might want to at least flip open the plastic cover. With three point games being handed out like candy these days, digging yourself a hole early can be fatal.

Cowen's future

We had all heard the rumours this off season. Some scouts around the NHL believed that Jared Cowen's stock as a top prospect had taken a hit. By taking the 18 year old 6'5 d-man 9th overall in the 2009 draft the Sens based their evaluation on the 17 year old Cowen. The pre knee inury version that help take Spokane to the Memorial Cup. Unfortunately many negative things have happened since draft day as Cowen struggled to overcome that major knee injury, was benched at the World Juniors and contracted Mono.

However all that negativity slowed as Sens training camp progressed, to the point where it was a legitimately tough call as to whether or not the 19 year old should be in the NHL this season. Cowen's decision making speed picked up and he showed that he doesn't mind using that towering frame to intimidate in front of his own goal. If there was any doubt, Cowen has "regained" that top prospect label.

The fact of the matter is that it's too bad Cowen's birthday wasn't 25 days earlier. That way he would be eligible to start the season in the AHL and no doubt be worthy of at least an injury call-up after he adjusts even more to the pro game. Last year, a 19 year old Erik Karlsson was afforded that chance because he wasn't drafted out of the CHL. All he did was become one of the Sens most valuable d-men after his much needed stint in the minors.

So Cowen is gone for the year. The good is that he should play up to 30 minutes a night and physically dominate the WHL. The bad is that he'll have to wait another year before he resumes his adjustment to the pro game. That wait is where it gets interesting. Don't assume he's a slam dunk to make the big club next year. That's through no fault of his own but a testimate to the potential depth on the Sens blueline.

It's not a stretch to assume the club will at some point re-sign veteran stalwart Chris Phillips. Along with Gonchar, Kuba, Karlsson, Carkner and Lee that would mean 6 blueliners are under contract for the 2011-12 season.

Of course there could be a trade at some point to change the dynamic but also consider this. At the very least Patrick Wiercioch should have a leg up thanks to a year of seasoning in the AHL(and maybe a bit in the NHL) and same could also possibly be said for the likes Eric Gryba (who is more in the Cowen mold). Let's also consider the prospect that David Rundblad is ready for prime time after a year in the Swedish Elite League. In talking to various members of the Sens brass after the draft night deal, it's expected that Rundblad will come over ready to play(or at least be very close to being ready) in the NHL.

Below is the possible NHL/AHL depth on the blueline for the next season. As you can see the question will be how many rookies do you want to break in in one season? That's what could make it even tougher for Cowen to crack the NHL next year as opposed to this year. All because he was born 25 days past 2010.

Phillips Gonchar
Kuba Karlsson
Carkner Lee

Cowen Wiercioch
Rundblad Gryba

Kovalev fight....Yes, I said Kovalev fight

This about as rare as Halley's Comet so I just had to post it. He got it half right. He floated like a butterfly but.... Good on him for showing up.

Sens camp - Goaltending

Today marks the end of the first week of Sens training camp. So what have we learned? Truthfully, not a whole hell of a lot, but there are some interesting story lines developing. After his opening night shutout of the Leafs and Brian Elliott's shaky first period the following night, many are already wondering if 19 year old Robin Lehner is ready for prime time. Easy there trigger.

While we should never rule out the improbable (see Matt Carkner last year) there are still a few large hurdles standing in the talented Swede's way:

-It's early. Really early. Lehner and Elliott have played one game each and Leclaire won't strap them on until later tonight in Montreal.

-Brian Elliott and Pascal Leclaire are both on one way contracts.

-If you assume burying one way money in the minors is the way to go consider this. Leclaire will make 4.8m(gulp) this season while Elliott earns .850.

Leclaire's issues are obvious. It would be a tough sell to ownership because of the salary, and it would be a tough admission by a management group that dealt Antoine Vermette away for him just 18 months ago(it should be noted that the 2nd rd pick also acquired in that deal turned into Lehner).

Part of the logic behind waiving one way money to the AHL is to clear cap space. That wouldn't be the case if the club decided to do that with Elliott. In fact, cap space would shrink by keeping Lehner in the NHL over Elliott as Lehner's NHL contract pays him .900 to Elliott's .850.

How about a trade? Have you paid attention to the market for goaltenders since the Stanley Cup Finals? Never say never, but good luck.

Having said all that(other than injury)the only way Lehner is here to start the season is if he continues to be near perfect in pre-season and one of the incumbents absolutely falter. There are just too many hurdles for this to be a pure hockey move.

Sometimes the Team lacks Character

We had former Sen Randy Robitaille on the show today. He and his family should be over in Switzerland as Randy suits up for Lugano for a third straight season, but instead the Robitaille's are still in Kanata playing a long distance game of poker. Fans of pro sports are all too familiar with athletes holding out for more money and sometimes not honouring existing contracts (cough..Yashin..cough) but Robitaille's dilemma is the exact opposite. In this case Lugano has told him he's not welcome to come back despite that fact he has a guaranteed contract signed in good faith for the upcoming season. Robitaille led the team in scoring last season but was blamed for bowing out in the first round of the playoffs. I guess that's grounds for trying to weasel out of a contract with your best player by hoping he'll quit. Stay classy Lugano. Randy lays it out quite well in the interview.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Ottawa-ON/TEAM-1200/254660295467#!/video/video.php?v=10150286155285585&ref=mf

Sens depth chart

EDIT: D Andre Benoit was signed today(Friday August 6th) to a 1 year, 2 way deal.

With the signing of Corey Cowick to an entry level deal today it would appear the Sens are pretty much done signing players...for now. So as we look at the depth in the organization it appears there will not only be some great battles to make the make the big club, but sticking around in the AHL might even be dicey for a few players. By my count there will 46 players in camp that have at least a 2 way contract. I'm sure there will also be some Amateur and Pro try outs as there were 55 players at last year's camp.

One way contracts(+Karlsson): 21

Regin Spezza Alfredsson
Michalek Fisher Kovalev
Foligno Kelly Neil
Ruutu Winchester Shannon

Phillips Karlsson
Gonchar Kuba
Campoli Carkner
Lee

Leclaire
Elliott

-of course Jared Cowen is a wildcard as he has to go back to junior if doesn't make the big team. Also of note, David Rundblad has an entry level deal but will spend another year overseas.


Two way contracts: 24
Entry Level: 15 (waiver exempt)
Veteran: 9 (Locke, Keller, Lessard, Bass, Hale, Kinrade, D. Smith, Benoit, Brodeur)

Wick Locke Butler
Hoffman Z. Smith Keller
Daugavins O'Brien Condra
Cowick Greening Dziurzynski
Bailey Bass Lessard

Wiercioch Gryba
Hale Kinrade
D. Smith Schira
Benoit

Lehner
Brodeur

-Players like Wick, Butler, Z. Smith, Locke, Keller, Cowen, Wiercioch, Gryba, Hale, Lehner and Brodeur will all head to camp believing if they really stand out and outplay some veterans the big club will find a spot for them. The trickle down will be interesting to watch as Binghamton fans should benefit.

Campoli deserves some slack...but

It's old news now, but in case you started your long weekend early the Sens avoided going to arbitration with Chris Campoli. As the veteran d-man signed a new 1 year, 1.4 million dollar contract on Friday. While interviewing Campoli on Friday afternoon, I was surprised to hear him say he had played last season with a sports hernia that he just had corrected with surgery about 8 weeks ago.

This was surprising because not once did we hear one peep from Campoli during what can only be characterized as a disappointing season. A season where the 25 year old saw his stock fall on the blueline to the point where he was scratched and dressed as a forward. The only ailment everyone knew about was the knee injury suffered just before the Olympic break that caused Campoli to miss 8 games.

When you hear fans and media question your play(and don't believe it when players say they don't hear it...they all do, at the very least indirectly) on a constant basis wouldn't it only be human nature to eventually say?

"listen, I'm putting off surgery for a sports hernia until the off-season because if you haven't noticed we're not overly deep on the blueline".

But he didn't. Campoli just rolled with it.

When faced with the choice of easing public criticism by admitting you're playing hurt, or earning more respect from teammates and the coaching staff by sucking it up, Campoli selected the latter. We'll call it anti-Hasek road.

Make no mistake. Bigger things were expected than an 18 point, 67 game season. Whenever the coaching staff was asked about Campoli's sub-par play the common refrain was they wanted to see him be harder on the puck and to just be more consistent with his overall level of play. Garry Galley once told me that if you make the decision to play hurt, you'd better play well because nobody cares how you're feeling once you decide to compete.

In hindsight, knowing what we know now about his season Campoli deserves a little slack. However, with a crowded blueline, he knows that slack won't matter once training camp starts and he's battling the likes of Brian Lee, Matt Carkner and host of youngsters led by Jared Cowen for the last 2 spots in the top 6.