If Alfie retires....trade him?

I know even suggesting the trading of Daniel Alfredsson in this town could be construed as a career-limiting move but hear me out on this one because it could make sense. My rationale is simple, if he’s going to retire, why not explore the possibility of another team picking up his $4,875,000 cap hit for next season?  Alfredsson, 39, signed his current four year deal after he turned 35 which means his annual cap hit remains on the books whether he retires or not, but not his actual salary. Next season, his salary is a paltry (by NHL standards) $1 million.

The best example of a “cap trade” in recent history is when the New York Rangers dealt Michal Rozsival to the league owned Coyotes for Wojtek Wolski during the 2010-11 season. On the surface, it’s a budget team (Phoenix) taking on a contract that carried an annual cap hit of $5 million, while trading a player whose cap hit was only $3.8 million. However, Rozsival’s front loaded contract only paid him $4 million last season and $3 million this season, while Wolski’s was $3.6 million last season and $4 million this season. The Coyotes cap hit jumped by almost $1.8 million over the life of the contracts, but their payroll dropped because Roszival made less actual cash than Wolski.

The beauty in trading for a retired player like Alfredsson is the team that acquires him would only be on the hook for the cap hit, not the $1 million dollar salary. Two things are certain in the NHL every off season: No. 1, there are always teams looking to move cash, and No. 2, there are always teams just trying to get to the salary cap floor. In the end, owners of “budget teams” care more about actual cash being paid to players. The cap floor is compulsory, the ceiling is irrelevant if you never intend to spend to it.

According to http://capgeek.com/ there were 10 teams (including Ottawa) that finished this season at least $8.4 million dollars under the salary cap. There are three ways to see an Alfredsson trade as plausible: 

One: Some team might see Alfredsson as a way to get to the cap floor without actually spending a dime.

Two: A team isn’t going to park the cap hit for the Sens out of the goodness of its heart. Ottawa could sweeten the deal by flipping picks (ie: The Sens send Alfredsson and a 4th to a team for a 6th round pick).

Three: There are always teams looking to move cash. Especially ones that can’t spend to the cap. The Sens could possibly find a fit for a player they could use that another team would like to shed because he makes too much. Remember, if Alfredsson retires, he makes $0. That can be music to the ears of a budget team if the Sens are willing to take back a player that actually draws a salary.

Keep in mind all of this could be moot for two reasons. No. 1, Alfredsson doesn't retire. No. 2, The Sens likely won't be close to the cap anyway.  However, if it were to happen it would play out like this: Alfredsson tells the Sens he’s retiring, Bryan Murray flips his rights to another team, Alfredsson actually retires and takes whatever hockey operations job is created for him with the Sens. It’s like he never left ... except for $4,875,000 in cap space.

 

**Amendment**. Mark Stone to join even a shorter list

***Amendment to post. The source info goes by calendar year and therefore doesn't account for early birthdays. Therefore, the teenage list even more exclusive. It's actually 10, not 17. Apologies.***     

It appears Mark Stone will be suiting up for the Ottawa Senators tonight for game five of eastern conference quarterfinals against the New York Rangers. If he does, he'll become just the *11th* teenager to have their first NHL game be a playoff game. Here's the list:

18 year olds: (4)

Gaye Stewart         1942
Rod Brind'Amour   1989
Mike Modano        1989
Jarome Iginla          1996

19 year olds: (6)

Gerry Couture        1945
Marcel Pronovost   1950
Gary Leeman         1983
Bob Halkidis          1985
Dan Vincelette        1987
Daniel Marois         1988

Mark Stone?           2012

Source: http://www.quanthockey.com/

Zibanejad and Silfverberg

With the post season set to begin for the Senators tomorrow night in New York, there is still a lot of buzz amongst the fan base regarding the availability of two of the organization's top prospects. That "buzz" picked up again yesterday when Mika Zibanejad (who turns 19 next week) spent the entire practice skating with Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek on the Senators top line. However, the plan was, and is, for the 6th overall pick in the 2011 Draft to head to Binghamton and play in the B-Sens final two games of the season this Friday and Saturday http://senators.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=627322. Yesterday he skated with Spezza and Michalek, this morning he was with Mike Hoffman and Jack Downing.

What happens with Zibanejad next is where it gets interesting. Senators assistant G.M. Tim Murray is sending Director of Player Development Randy Lee along with pro scouts Jim Clark and Rob Murphy to watch Zibanejad play. Murray says it's not about whether or not the young forward can rack of up some points, but he and the brass want to get better handle on his energy level and pace of play. Zibanejad suffered through a tough season in the Swedish Elite League where he battled through an illness and also received a concussion. Sending 3 scouts to watch him play this weekend is all about gauging whether or not it's worth it to at least make him available to Paul Maclean at some point this post season.

If you are concerned about Zibanejad burning up year one of his entry level contract (by playing one more NHL game), don't be. To quote Tim Murray:

"The burning the year here for me doesn't mean anything, he's a top end player that's gonna get his money, he's gonna get his term down the road...but in saying that it is a big decision and you want to be sure that he does bring you that jump, that life and that energy. They're going to keep a close eye on him down there (with Binghamton) and just see where he's at from a physical standpoint."

It should be pointed out that under the terms of the C.B.A, there's a big difference between the 10 game threshold and the one that comes at 40 games. When a junior aged player hits the 10 game mark, year one of his entry level contract burned, but that doesn't put him any closer to unrestricted free agency. That year is burned at the 40 game mark which is the threshold for an accrued NHL season. When players enter the league the clock starts ticking on their wait to becoming a unrestricted by either spending 7 years in the league or hitting their 27th birthday, whichever comes first. In some cases, burning year one of entry level could actually be beneficial. More from Tim Murray:

"Actually by burning the year we get rid of potentially the one year of bonuses that he could make. As I talked to his agent yesterday, neither side is sure who gains by burning the year...He's got 3 years of potentially decent bonus money, you have to assume that he would achieve that in his third year..but there is the potential that he doesn't max out his full earning power by burning a year. That's not a reason we'd do it (play him to burn year 1), I'm just giving you both sides of the story."

Meanwhile, the organization's top prospect is continuing his dominant season in Sweden. Jakob Silfverberg has Brynas up 1-0 in the finals. A series that could end as early as this Sunday, or at the latest April 21st. Tim Murray has been contact with his Silfverberg's agents since the start of the Elite League playoffs:

"We've made it clear we want him here. They're going to do their due diligence and get his release from the national team is what I'm told. When he's done there...he wants to be here. Legitimately, I could see him getting in the line-up. He's a helluva player. It's not like you're putting a kid in the lineup, he's 3 years in the elite league...he's the second youngest MVP (Peter Forsberg) ever...Apart from being in the American League, his development has been outstanding and we believe that he's ready for the next step."

Note: Due to his age, Silfverberg burns year one of his entry level deal this year regardless.

Here is the link for our interview with Tim Murray:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151506368305585

Turris: Options now and in the future

What a difference a year makes. At this time last year the Sens top prospect at centre was probably Jim O'Brien. Since then the club has picked up Stephane Da Costa, Mika Zibanejad, and now Kyle Turris. This doesn't guarantee anything, but it at least gives the organization three new "possibles" for that much talked about 2nd line centre position over the next couple of years. Remember, even though the Sens are hanging around the 8th spot right now, this is a rebuild, what's happening now is gravy.

Having said that, don't tell that to the players or head coach Paul Maclean. As Herm Edwards told us "you play....to win.....the games". Not too long ago Peter Regin was injured, Nick Foligno was strictly a winger and Kyle Turris was holding out in Phoenix. Those are three options to fill that second line centre spot right now that weren't there couple of weeks ago.

Despite the return of Regin and the great play from Foligno of late, Turris is going to get that spot right away. The aforementioned two could very well be his wingers (until the return of Michalek). You don't trade David Rundblad and just wait and see. With Regin and Foligno back on the wing, the odd man out is obviously Bobby Butler. With Spezza and Turris as the centres, it's hard to see a scenario(barring injury or another move)where the underachieving winger plays ahead of Michalek*, Alfredsson, Regin, Foligno or Greening in the top 6.

As far as the actual trade is concerned. It's always risky when a G.M. gives up a young unproven asset with plenty of upside. Both the Sens and Coyotes are in the same boat on this one, but good on Don Maloney for creating a market/bidding war for Turris and getting a 2nd round pick. If you're Bryan Murray you can live with giving up Rundblad as it has become apparent that the big money on the blue-line will be going to Karlsson and eventually Cowen for the foreseeable future.

Like any trade of this nature, there's no way to pass judgement on it until a few years have passed. After all that's been written and said it will simply come down to which player doesn't reach his full potential.

From Nikita to Bobby

Now that the Nikita Filatov experiment is over for this season (maybe for good) the question I have is, how long will the Bobby Butler experiment last? G.M. Bryan Murray and head coach Paul Maclean made it abundantly clear today, if you're a player that is expected to put up points, then you'd better do just that. Both Murray and Maclean acknowledge that's not really fair, but that's NHL hockey. They're right. Which brings us to Bobby Butler. He's worked hard all season, but what exactly is the young winger bringing if he's not scoring? He's in exactly the same position Filatov was. A young player that has been given opportunity (Butler even more-so) that has failed to take advantage.

The difference between Butler and Filatov is their contracts. Having scored just twice in 21 games (both coming in the same game), I would assume if Butler was still on entry level he would have already spent some time in Binghamton this season. He is in year one of a two year, one way contract, that pays him 900,000 this season. However, despite being on a one way, inexperience in the NHL means Butler still has to play 11 NHL games before he is no longer waiver exempt ( http://bit.ly/sLOV1M).

After once again getting his share of minutes with top 6 players (which included power play time) in recent games, Butler found himself back on the 4th line again for practice today. Now that Peter Regin is healthy, his window to show something in the top 6 has probably closed for the time being. Why not take advantage of his waiver exempt status while it still exists? See if some time in Bingo can rekindle a scoring touch saw him pot 45 goals in 106 pro games last season. Like Filatov, Butler is a young player that's expected to score. The Sens have other players to do the 'little things". It's not fair, but that's the NHL.

Sens are green but flexible

Interesting tidbit in this year of rebuilding for the Ottawa Senators. There are 8 roster players that are waiver exempt. This illustrates how green the team is, but also how flexible management can be with the roster in terms of shuttling players between Ottawa and Binghamton.

Courtesy Capgeek.com's waiver calculator, here is a list of current roster players on the Senators that are waiver exempt. This shows the number of years (not including 2011-12) or games he has to play before lose his exemption (whichever he reaches first):

Bobby Butler 1 year or 30 games

Erik Condra 1 year or 31 games

Colin Greening 1 year or 32 games

Stephane Da Costa 2 years or 72 games

Mika Zibanejad 5 years or 156 games

Jared Cowen 3 years or 155 games

David Rundblad 2 years or 158 games

Erik Karlsson 1 year or 15 games

A little perspective on Patrick Lalime

First off. Congrats to Patrick Lalime on a fine career and on his new job with RDS.

Unfortunately for Lalime, hockey fans and experts alike judge his time in Ottawa on what happened in game 7 against the Leafs in 2004. Understandable, because it was horrific. But over the years it seems people are too quick to use that period in that game to judge his body of playoff work over 4 seasons in Ottawa. It's uniformed and it's not right.

A little perspective:

-Patrick Lalime played 41 post season games with the Sens over the course of 4 years (2001-2004)
-The Sens bowed out in the 1st round in 2001, the 2nd in 2002, the 3rd in 2003 and the 1st in 2004
-Lalime's post season stats are: 21-20, 1.77 GAA, .926 SV%. Some of the best numbers of all time
-In those 41 games, the Sens averaged just 2.09 goals per game. They were shutout 9 times, and scored just one goal on 4 other occasions
-In each of those 4 regular seasons the supposedly always defense first Sens averaged 3.17 goals per game. The team was 3rd, 5th, 3rd and 1st in goals for during those regular seasons.

Anyone who puts the Sens playoff shortcomings on Patrick Lalime should take a look at the numbers and give their head a shake. How does a team expect to have playoff success if it's goals for drops by over a goal a game in the playoffs? It's a miracle they won 3 series in Lalime's time.